Seven Deadly Sins

1. Overconfidence
   • Fischoff et al. (1977) expieriment using general knowledge questions: S's overestimate how many of their answers are correct. S's express 99%, 99.9% or even greater confidence in answers which are in fact wrong. Attempts to "debias" the subjects by lecturing them on probability are only slightly successful.
2. Illusory correlations (magical thinking) (demonstrated by, inter alia, the Wason selection task)
3. Predictability in hindsight (otherwise known as hindsight bias)
4. Anchoring (information that we know to be unreliable still influences our judgements, because we try not to stray far from it)
5. Ease of representation
6. Probability Blindness
7. Reconsideration under suitable scripts (otherwise known as framing effects)