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Applications of Bias Theory

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on August 16, 2007 at 5:04:25 pm
 

Applications: War

 

Up: Applications

 

 

From Daniel Kahneman, Jonathan Renshon (2007) "Why Hawks Win". Foreign Policy. January/February

 

"[W]hen we constructed a list of the biases uncovered in 40 years of psychological research, we were startled by what we found: All the biases in our list favor hawks. These psychological impulses—only a few of which we discuss here—incline national leaders to exaggerate the evil intentions of adversaries, to misjudge how adversaries perceive them, to be overly sanguine when hostilities start, and overly reluctant to make necessary concessions in negotiations. In short, these biases have the effect of making wars more likely to begin and more difficult to end."

 

"Our conclusion is not that hawkish advisors are necessarily wrong, only that they are likely to be more persuasive than they deserve to be."

 

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